How Russia’s Military Is Positioned to Threaten Ukraine

Authored by nytimes.com and submitted by laughingasparagus
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10,000 5,000 Troops Artillery Armored vehicles Tanks Other military or air installations 1,000 Moscow Yelnya POLAND Around 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed near the Ukrainian border. Klintsy BELARUS Pochep RUSSIA Pogonovo Kyiv Forces deployed north of Ukraine could stretch the country’s forces thin and threaten its capital, Kyiv. Soloti Boguchar KAZAKHSTAN UKRAINE Luhansk Volgograd MOLDOVA Donetsk Approximate line separating Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces. Persianovskiy Nearly 20,000 troops are near two breakaway provinces, where Ukraine has been locked in a grinding war with Russian-backed separatists since 2014. ROMANIA Rostov-on-Don SEA OF AZOV CRIMEA Korenovsk Novoozerne CASPIAN SEA BULGARIA BLACK SEA 10,000 5,000 Troops Artillery Armored vehicles Tanks Other military or air installations 1,000 Moscow Yelnya POLAND Klintsy Around 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed near the Ukrainian border. BELARUS Pochep RUSSIA Pogonovo Kyiv Forces deployed north of Ukraine could stretch the country’s forces thin and threaten its capital, Kyiv. Soloti Boguchar KAZAKHSTAN UKRAINE Luhansk Volgograd MOLDOVA Donetsk Approximate line separating Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces. Persianovskiy Nearly 20,000 troops are near two breakaway provinces, where Ukraine has been locked in a grinding war with Russian-backed separatists since 2014. ROMANIA Rostov-on-Don SEA OF AZOV CRIMEA Korenovsk Novoozerne CASPIAN SEA BULGARIA BLACK SEA 10,000 5,000 Artillery Armored vehicles Tanks Other installations Troops 1,000 Moscow Yelnya Around 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed near the Ukrainian border. POLAND Klintsy BELARUS Pochep RUSSIA Pogonovo Kyiv Forces deployed north of Ukraine could stretch the country’s forces thin and threaten its capital, Kyiv. Soloti Boguchar KAZAKHSTAN UKRAINE Approximate line separating Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces. MOLDOVA Luhansk Volgograd Donetsk Persianovskiy ROMANIA Rostov-on-Don CASPIAN SEA SEA OF AZOV CRIMEA Nearly 20,000 troops are near two breakaway provinces, where Ukraine has been locked in a grinding war with Russian-backed separatists since 2014. Korenovsk Novoozerne BULGARIA BLACK SEA Artillery Other installations 10,000 5,000 Troops Armored vehicles 1,000 Tanks Moscow Yelnya BELARUS Around 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed near the Ukrainian border. Klintsy RUSSIA Forces deployed north of Ukraine could stretch the country’s forces thin and threaten its capital, Kyiv. Kyiv Luhansk UKRAINE Donetsk CRIMEA Nearly 20,000 troops are near two breakaway provinces, where Ukraine has been locked in a grinding war with Russian-backed separatists since 2014. BLACK SEA 10,000 Artillery Other installations 5,000 Troops 1,000 Armored vehicles Tanks Moscow Yelnya Around 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed near the Ukrainian border. Klintsy Kyiv UKRAINE Luhansk Donetsk RUSSIA CRIMEA BLACK SEA Source: Rochan Consulting . Yelnya image from Planet Labs; December 29, 2021. Novoozerne image from Maxar; October 18, 2021. The New York Times

A build-up of Russian forces near the border with Ukraine has raised concerns among Western and Ukrainian officials that the Kremlin might be preparing for significant military action, possibly an invasion. This map, compiled by The New York Times, shows troops, tanks and heavy artillery moving into positions that threaten to widen the conflict in Ukraine’s east as well as potentially open a new front on Ukraine’s northern border, closer to the capital, Kyiv.

Russia currently has about 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border, according to Ukrainian and Western officials. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the Kremlin has drawn up plans for a military operation involving up to 175,000 troops that could begin in the coming weeks. While it is not clear whether President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has decided to launch an attack, analysts say the country is well on its way toward constructing the architecture needed for a significant military intervention in Ukraine.

On Monday, representatives from the United States and Russia will meet in Geneva for talks aimed at de-escalating the crisis. Mr. Putin has said that Russia wants what he calls security guarantees, which would, among other things, bar the United States and NATO from expanding eastward into regions the Kremlin deems as within its sphere of influence.

This map represents a snapshot of current Russian positions, as well as broad estimates of the number of troops and kinds of equipment deployed within striking distance of Ukraine. It is based on information obtained by Ukrainian and Western officials as well as independent military analysts and satellite imagery.

Much of the build-up so far, according to officials and military analysts, has involved troops and equipment that take time to deploy, including tanks and heavy armor, some of which have traveled by train from bases as far away as Siberia.

Before launching a significant military operation, however, Russia will likely need to deploy reserve soldiers and logistical infrastructure, like field hospitals, that currently appear to be missing from positions near Ukraine, analysts say. These elements along with additional troops could be deployed rapidly should a decision be made to attack.

Much of the attention so far has been directed at the build-up of forces near two breakaway provinces in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, where since 2014 the Ukrainian military has been at war with Russian-backed separatists. The separatist forces, which include Russian troops and Ukrainian fighters opposed to Kyiv’s rule, amount to about 30,000, according to an assessment by the Ukrainian military.

Eastern Ukraine 10,000 5,000 1,000 UKRAINE Troops Artillery Armored vehicles Tanks Other military or air installations Luhansk Motorized infantry unit Approximate line separating Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces. Military analysts say Russian troops deployed to Ukraine’s east could be used to seize additional territory from Ukrainian control, beyond what has already been taken by Russian-backed separatists. 32,000 troops in Eastern Ukraine Donetsk Motorized infantry unit RUSSIA Persianovskiy Two tank units Motorized infantry unit Rostov-on-Don Motorized infantry unit Artillery unit Southern Military District Army Corps SEA OF Azov 10,000 5,000 1,000 UKRAINE Troops Artillery Armored vehicles Tanks Other military or air installations Approximate line separating Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces. Luhansk Motorized infantry unit Military analysts say Russian troops deployed to Ukraine’s east could be used to seize additional territory from Ukrainian control, beyond what has already been taken by Russian-backed separatists. 32,000 troops in Eastern Ukraine Donetsk Motorized infantry unit RUSSIA Persianovskiy Two tank units Motorized infantry unit Rostov-on-Don Motorized infantry unit Artillery unit Southern Military District Army Corps SEA OF Azov 10,000 5,000 1,000 Troops Artillery Armored vehicles UKRAINE Tanks Other installations Approximate line separating Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces. Military analysts say Russian troops deployed to Ukraine’s east could be used to seize additional territory from Ukrainian control, beyond what has already been taken by Russian-backed separatists. Luhansk 32,000 troops in Eastern Ukraine Donetsk Persianovskiy Rostov-on-Don RUSSIA SEA OF Azov 10,000 5,000 1,000 Troops Artillery Armored vehicles Tanks UKRAINE Other installations Approximate line separating Ukrainian and Russian-backed forces. RUSSIA Luhansk 32,000 troops in Eastern Ukraine Donetsk Persianovskiy Rostov-on-Don Source: Rochan Consulting The New York Times

Since the start of 2021, Russia has moved an additional five battalion tactical groups into the border area near Luhansk and Donetsk, including about 5,000 soldiers sent to reinforce the 12,000 or so stationed there permanently, according to Ukrainian authorities. Just as significant, according to officials and military analysts, are the forces massing north of Ukraine in areas such as Klintsy, at the point where the Ukrainian, Russian and Belarusian borders meet. These positions are within easy striking distance of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.

Unemployed_Sapien on January 9th, 2022 at 07:25 UTC »

I believe the chances of Russian invasion are almost zero. The reasons are quite obvious,

While Russians overwhelmingly support the annexation of Crimea, they are a lot more uncomfortable with the war in Donbas. Even though Eastern Ukraine could be taken easily, but Western Ukraine is not. Also, international diplomatic backlash would be catastrophic for Russia’s economy. The only thing of value Ukraine has is agriculture, which would collapse in the event of an all-out war followed by an inevitable viscous and impassioned insurrection. On top of that, the Kremlin would take on the cost of fixing Ukraine at a time when it is struggling to fix Russia Inc.

Invading Ukraine is not Putin’s preferred option to bring Washington to the table, but it took such a threat to get the White House to take his agenda seriously. If United States fails to deliver satisfactory results for Moscow, the "military-technical" response that the Russian leadership mentioned may indeed directly concern Ukraine. This doesn’t necessarily imply a direct military invasion but may include a range of other options such as, for instance, missile deployments in Donbass, Crimea, or elsewhere. In addition, Russian officials also promised to embark on the course of “creating vulnerabilities” for Western countries.

There’s a sense in Moscow that Washington is looking for changes to the European security architecture so that it can focus on the Indo-Pacific. And if that is the case, Russia can be part of the solution if the United States agrees to the Kremlin’s proposals, or become an even bigger problem if the United States rejects them. 

MrIndira on January 9th, 2022 at 06:31 UTC »

Two weeks he only moved 10k troops of the ~150k.

Hardly anything.. apparently they were done doing some sort of training.

laughingasparagus on January 9th, 2022 at 06:18 UTC »

Submission statement: This article, published today, reads that “Western officials fear a military operation could start as soon as this month.” Two weeks ago, including in this sub (top post this month) headlines teased that the crisis was mostly averted and that Russian forces were withdrawing.

Was this just a bluff from Putin?

This article and others that have been published today seem to suggest that invasion is more likely now than ever.