These maps show how Republicans are blatantly rigging elections

Authored by theguardian.com and submitted by Darzanak
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It’s the foundational concept of US democracy: voters choose the politicians they want to represent them.

Yet the reality in 2021 is much more depressing. As politicians undertake the once-a-decade process of redrawing political districts across the country, they are essentially rigging the system by deciding among themselves exactly which voters in which areas they want to represent. It’s a process called gerrymandering that allows them to virtually choose their voters and guarantee their re-election.

The United States stands almost alone in allowing partisan politicians to draw political districts in this way. It’s an invisible scalpel that profoundly affects US politics but also the tenor and character of the national discourse.

Republicans have control of the process in many states this year. And so far, they’re maximizing their advantage wherever they can. The new lines will likely help Republicans retake control of the US House next year.

Let us show you how the Republicans are gerrymandering in four important parts of the country.

In North Carolina, Republicans have drawn a new congressional map that gives them a lock on at least 10 of the state’s 14 congressional seats. That’s a staggering advantage in a state that re-elected a Democratic governor in 2020 and where Joe Biden got 48.6% of the statewide vote.

Guardian graphic. Sources: Current district boundaries and 2020 election data from Redistricting Data Hub. Proposed boundaries from the North Carolina General Assembly. Actual 2020 election margins from Daily Kos and projected margins from PlanScore. Here are the results of the 2020 presidential race in north-central North Carolina. The circles represent results by precinct – the bigger the circle, the bigger the margin of victory for either Democrats or Republicans. This is North Carolina's sixth congressional district, currently represented by a Democrat. Joe Biden won the district by 24 points. Republicans drew new lines that crack Democratic voters into four heavily GOP districts where they're in the minority. This is the new 11th congressional district. If these boundary lines had been in place for the 2020 election, Donald Trump would have carried the district by 10 points. This is the seventh district, which Trump would have carried by 12 points. This is the 10th district, which Trump would have carried by 16 points. And this is 12th district, which Trump would have carried by 10 points. The outcome of all this? Republicans have dismantled a Democratic district and helped preserve their majority in the state's congressional delegation.

Remarkably enough, federal courts can’t do anything to stop this kind of extreme gerrymandering on partisan grounds, the supreme court ruled in 2019.

There are few limits on the process. Each district must have roughly the same number of people. In many places they must be reasonably compact. And lawmakers can’t dilute the influence of voters based on their race.

But politicians are free to group voters based on their partisan leanings. And in recent decades, they’ve done that surgically, carving up communities to essentially lock in advantages for years to come. A decade ago, Republicans launched a hugely successful effort, called Project REDMAP, to take control of state legislatures and then used their new majorities to draw maps that locked in their advantage for a decade. This year, Republicans have the power to draw the lines of 187 congressional districts while Democrats have power in 75, according to the Cook Political Report.

During the 2012, 2014 and 2016 midterm elections, gerrymandering shifted 59 congressional seats, 39 for Republicans and 20 for Democrats, according to a report from the left-leaning Center for American Progress.

While Democrats have gerrymandering power in far fewer places this year, they’ve also shown a willingness to use their scalpel where they have control in places such as Illinois and Oregon.

Diluting the influence of Black voters

Although it is illegal to carve up districts that weaken the influence of voters based on their race, sometimes lawmakers do it anyway.

Guardian graphic. Sources: Current district boundaries and Black voter population data from Redistricting Data Hub. Proposed boundaries from the North Carolina General Assembly. Actual 2020 election margins from Daily Kos and projected margins from PlanScore. This is an area in the north-eastern part of North Carolina where there is a high population of Black voters. Here is North Carolina's first congressional district. It's currently represented by a Democrat. Since the 1990s, lawmakers have been legally required to draw a congressional district in this part of the state in which Black voters can elect the candidate of their choice. But with their new lines, Republicans are weakening the influence of Black voters. They removed Black voters in a city called Greenville from the district, which is Democratic-leaning. They replaced those voters with white people to the north-west. Overall, the share of Black voters was lowered from 44% to 42%. Joe Biden carried the district by eight points in 2020. But under the new lines, he would have won by just two points, giving Republicans a chance to flip the district.

In Texas, Republicans have drawn lines that blunt the immense growth among the Democratic-leaning Hispanic population to shore up the GOP’s hold on as many as 25 of the state’s 38 congressional seats.

Even though people of color accounted for 95% of the population growth over the last decade, there are no districts where minorities make up a majority of the population.

Until 2013, states with a history of voting discrimination, including Texas, had to get their maps pre-cleared by the federal government before they went into effect to ensure they didn’t discriminate against minority voters. Now, Texas has much more leeway to pass maps that discriminate against people of color.

Guardian graphic. Sources: Current district boundaries and 2020 election results from Redistricting Data Hub. Proposed boundaries from the Texas Legislative Council. Actual 2020 election margins from Daily Kos and projected margins from PlanScore. These are the margins of victory for Democrats and Republicans in the Dallas-Fort Worth area in the 2020 presidential election. In 2020, Republican Donald Trump eked out a three-point win in Texas's sixth congressional district. During redistricting, Republicans sought to redraw this district so they would safely win in future elections. They drew a new boundary that pulled more Republican voters into the district. In the north, the new district also includes residents of Hispanic, Democratic-leaning areas – to their disadvantage. These voters from a diverse Democratic district are lumped into a largely rural one where Republicans have a huge advantage. With these new boundaries, Trump in 2020 would've won TX-6 by a comfortable 22 points.

The Dallas-Fort Worth area in Texas is one of the fastest growing areas in the state – and one of the most politically competitive. Because each district must have roughly the same number of people by law, Texas Republicans had to get creative in how they regrouped voters.

In some places, they took small slivers of heavily populated Democratic suburbs and attached them to rural GOP areas. In other cases, they excised Democrats from politically competitive districts and packed them into districts that already favored Democrats.

Guardian graphic. Sources: Current district boundaries and 2020 election results from Redistricting Data Hub. Proposed boundaries from the Texas Legislative Council. Actual 2020 election margins from Daily Kos and projected margins from PlanScore. This is a politically competitive area near Dallas. Texas's 24th congressional district is currently represented by a Republican. But in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden actually won the district by five points. Republicans drew new boundaries to pull in more Republican voters. The result is a new district Trump would have won by 12 points in 2020. Meanwhile in the nearby 32nd congressional district, they packed in as many of the excised Democratic voters as possible. The goal is to put Democratic votes in places where they won't shift the results, while taking away Democratic votes in districts with more competitive races.

Voting rights advocates face an uphill battle in challenging these maps in court. In 2019, the US supreme court said there was nothing federal courts could do to stop partisan gerrymandering.

Redistricting litigation often takes years to move its way through the court, allowing lawmakers to get at least one election, and often many more, conducted under district lines that may later get struck down.

In the meantime, the effects are insidious. When politicians know their seat is safe, they no longer have to worry about competition from the opposing party or concern themselves with reaching out to the other party’s voters.

Instead, they become more interested in appealing to their own base and fending off challengers from within their own party. It makes politics more extreme, and contributes to extreme polarization.

camelsonstilts on November 12nd, 2021 at 14:52 UTC »

To all the people saying “Why isn’t anyone doing anything about this?” Some states are - handing over redistricting to an independent commission, with clear metrics to evaluate fairness. It’s predominantly Democrat run states that are doing it though. You can learn more on this at FiveThirtyEight.com https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/

Jaketheparrot on November 12nd, 2021 at 13:57 UTC »

Just seeing these maps make me furious. It is blatant disenfranchisement for the state voters. How the fuck do people not care.

Xuetami on November 12nd, 2021 at 12:55 UTC »

Partisan gerrymandering is so bad that I don't think we can reasonably call the US a democracy any more.