China could be ready to mount a 'full-scale' invasion of Taiwan by 2025, island's defense minister says

Authored by edition.cnn.com and submitted by HariSeldonOlivaw

(CNN) China could be capable of mounting a "full-scale" invasion of Taiwan by 2025, the island's defense minister said Wednesday -- days after record numbers of Chinese warplanes flew into Taiwan's air defense zone.

"With regards to staging an attack on Taiwan, they currently have the ability. But [China] has to pay the price," Chiu Kuo-cheng, the defense minister, told Taiwanese journalists on Wednesday.

But he said that by 2025, that price will be lower -- and China will be able to mount a "full-scale" invasion.

Chiu's comments came after China sent 150 warplanes , including fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers, into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) since October 1.

At a parliament meeting Wednesday, Chiu described cross-strait military tensions as "the most serious" in more than 40 years since he joined the military, Taiwan's official Central News Agency (CNA) reported.

TheobaldWolfeTone on October 7th, 2021 at 14:18 UTC »

If they were to do it. They’ll do it after the 2024 u.s election when the U.S will be in chaos and more divided then last time. So November 2024- February 2025.

TTauriStellarBody on October 7th, 2021 at 07:27 UTC »

China will not have a significant capability that will alter the balance in the next 4 years that I am aware of. The balance may tweak towards China vs a US backed ROC. But the US is clearly changing its defense posture to a more naval, more hi tech one and away from the "forever wars" of the 2000s\10s. It has upped its spending into hypersonics to over $3 billion a year and has massively expanded its planned SSN fleet for the 2030s.

I am unpersuaded this statement changes much. It seems to have a domestic audience to stir up anti CCP sentiment in a country with a significant reunification presence. It also seems to be trying to appeal to the world to see Taiwan as a country under threat (it is) and worthy of sympathy and support. That is to say this is about evoking emotion rather than conveying information.

My opinion. People are free to come to other conclusions.

HariSeldonOlivaw on October 6th, 2021 at 22:51 UTC »

We've heard plenty of warnings about the potential for a Chinese invasion, as well as plenty of people denouncing those warnings for incorrectly assuming China would have the capability to do so today. All of which is fair; by most estimates, China lacks the amphibious capability to really carry out an invasion that would be acceptable domestically, politically, and militarily.

At the same time, Taiwan is now sounding the alarm about the trends coming along. I think this is partially signaling; Taiwan wants the US to sell it more arms, assist it more, and the like. It also wants to instill a sense of urgency in its few allies, and maybe its leaders do at home too.

Still, it's clear that something has to change. Either Taiwan must be abandoned, or it must be strengthened significantly, to a level that smaller-scale arms sales won't necessarily help. I'm also more curious as to whether the defense minister is right. I think, in fact, he's figuring that the main problem isn't even China's growing capabilities, so much as it is weakening US motivation to even pretend to commit to Taiwan's defense, whatever the law might claim (especially since the US President controls foreign affairs so heavily). By 2017, China had already (per RAND's scorecard) reached a point of parity in any Taiwan attack scenario, as far as most metrics are concerned. By 2025, it seems even more likely that China will be capable of carrying out just such an attack to me, but I'm curious what others think, and how soon an attack would happen if not by 2025.