I don't want to be harsh on you, but I think that this graph is a bit misleading. It can lead people to think, for example, that there is a 1/107 chance of dying from a car crash "each time you travel by car", which is not true.
The problem is that you are mixing "strongly conditioned probabilities" with "non-conditioned probabilities" (maybe these are not the right words). What I mean is, some "causes", like 'motor-vehicle accident', 'firearm', have pre-conditions like 'being involved in a car accident' and 'being involved in a firearm incident', which have a low probability that it's invisible to the viewer. However, clotting from J&J vaccine has one pre-condition only: 'getting the vaccine', which is easily inferred by the viewer.
Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's important to put the risk of the vaccines in perspective, and I know that's what you're trying to do, but I don't agree that this is the right way to do it.
bfgvrstsfgbfhdsgf on April 14th, 2021 at 06:18 UTC »
So your telling me there’s a chance?
cinico on April 14th, 2021 at 07:21 UTC »
I don't want to be harsh on you, but I think that this graph is a bit misleading. It can lead people to think, for example, that there is a 1/107 chance of dying from a car crash "each time you travel by car", which is not true.
The problem is that you are mixing "strongly conditioned probabilities" with "non-conditioned probabilities" (maybe these are not the right words). What I mean is, some "causes", like 'motor-vehicle accident', 'firearm', have pre-conditions like 'being involved in a car accident' and 'being involved in a firearm incident', which have a low probability that it's invisible to the viewer. However, clotting from J&J vaccine has one pre-condition only: 'getting the vaccine', which is easily inferred by the viewer.
Don't get me wrong, I agree that it's important to put the risk of the vaccines in perspective, and I know that's what you're trying to do, but I don't agree that this is the right way to do it.
argosgold on April 14th, 2021 at 07:28 UTC »
A recent episode of the BBC's More or Less compared the risk of clots from the Astrazeneca vaccine with the risk of clots from taking the contraceptive pill.
Worth a listen.