Gallup: Democrats now outnumber Republicans by 9 percentage points, thanks to independents

Authored by theweek.com and submitted by mar_kelp
image for Gallup: Democrats now outnumber Republicans by 9 percentage points, thanks to independents

"I think what we have to do as a party is battle the damage to the Democratic brand," Democratic National Committee Chairman Jamie Harrison said on The Daily Beast's latest New Abnormal podcast. Gallup reported Wednesday that, at least relatively speaking, the Democratic brand is doing pretty good.

In the first quarter of 2021, 49 percent of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or independents with Democratic leanings, versus 40 percent for Republicans and GOP leaders, Gallup said. "The 9-percentage-point Democratic advantage is the largest Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012. In recent years, Democratic advantages have typically been between 4 and 6 percentage points."

New Gallup polling finds that in the first quarter of 2021, an average of 49% of Americans identify with/lean toward the Democratic Party, versus 40 percent for Republicans. That's the largest gap since 2012:https://t.co/YpUvqBKxLx pic.twitter.com/JrNXQvisbv — Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) April 7, 2021

When Gallup stripped out the independents, 30 percent of U.S. adults identified as Democrats, 25 percent as Republicans, and 11 percent were independents with no partisan leanings. The rise in the number of independents, to 44 percent from 38 percent in the previous quarter, "correlates with the decline in Republican Party identification, just as in 2013, when the GOP saw a drop in the popularity during the government shutdown over the Affordable Care Act," Gallup says. Democratic affiliation has hovered around 30 percent for most of the past eight years.

Party identification, polled on every Gallup survey, is "something that we think is important to track to give a sense to the relevant strength of the two parties at any one point in time and how party preferences are responding to events," Gallup senior editor Jeff Jones told USA Today.

Republicans recovered from their 2013 deficit "to make gains in the 2014 midterm elections and are hoping to duplicate that feat in 2022," Gallup notes. "Like in 2014, their hopes may rest largely on the popularity level of the incumbent Democratic president." Gallup currently has President Biden's approval rating at 54 percent. Peter Weber

TJ_McWeaksauce on April 7th, 2021 at 13:23 UTC »

Reminder that after President Obama won re-election with a comfortable popular vote and electoral vote margin in 2012, the Republicans did some soul-searching and released this "autopsy" report.

These were the core recommendation from that report:

The Grand Old Party should be synonymous with the name “Growth and Opportunity Party.” The Republican Party needs to stop talking to itself. We have become expert in how to provide ideological reinforcement to like-minded people, but devastatingly we have lost the ability to be persuasive with, or welcoming to, those who do not agree with us on every issue. It is time for Republicans on the federal level to learn from successful Republicans on the state level. It is time to smartly change course, modernize the Party, and learn once again how to appeal to more people, including those who share some but not all of our conservative principles. The perception that the GOP does not care about people is doing great harm to the Party and its candidates on the federal level, especially in presidential years. It is a major deficiency that must be addressed. We need to do a better job connecting people to our policies. Our ideas can sound distant and removed from people’s lives. Instead of connecting with voters’ concerns, we too often sound like bookkeepers. The Republican Party must be the champion of those who seek to climb the economic ladder of life. Low-income Americans are hard-working people who want to become hard-working middle-income Americans. Middle-income Americans want to become upper-middle-income, and so on. We need to help everyone make it in America. We have to blow the whistle at corporate malfeasance and attack corporate welfare. We should speak out when a company liquidates itself and its executives receive bonuses but rank-and-file workers are left unemployed. We should speak out when CEOs receive tens of millions of dollars in retirement packages but middle-class workers have not had a meaningful raise in years. If we believe our policies are the best ones to improve the lives of the American people, all the American people, our candidates and office holders need to do a better job talking in normal, people-oriented terms and we need to go to communities where Republicans do not normally go to listen and make our case. We need to campaign among Hispanic, black, Asian, and gay Americans and demonstrate that we care about them, too.

What did the Republican establishment end up doing, though? They shat on every single idea listed above, supported that screaming scumbag Trump practically every step of the way, and continue to veer further and further into far-right lunacy.

The report talks a lot about connecting with more people, becoming more diverse and inclusive, and convincing more voters that Republican policies will make people's lives better. Today, the GOP doesn't care about any of that; instead, they're going all-in on voter suppression to cling to power.

What's especially funny is that the dude whose name appears at the top of the report—former RNC chariman Reince Priebus—was one of Donald's top ass-lickers for a little while. Really highlights how much Republicans didn't give a shit about making positive changes to their party.

Republicans deserve to be an ever-shrinking minority. They can't fade away into irrelevance quickly enough.

maqij on April 7th, 2021 at 11:39 UTC »

So we need a 9% difference in the population just to get a tie in the senate.

IveBeenCanceledAgain on April 7th, 2021 at 11:32 UTC »

The rise in the number of independents, to 44 percent from 38 percent in the previous quarter, "correlates with the decline in Republican Party identification

If these are "moderate" Republicans leaving the party, in states with closed primaries it will cause a farther concentration of right wing crazy because the primaries will be a race to the crazy, Trumpie racist, right. Then those "independents" will vote for the Republican candidate (because they could never vote for a Democrat) sending more Gaetzs and Marjorie Taylor Greenes and Lauren Boeberts to Washington.