Missing from Trump’s re-election pitch: What he’d do if re-elected

President Trump spoke for 74 minutes recently in Bullhead City, Ariz., near the Nevada border. He spent roughly two minutes explaining what he would do if re-elected.

The rest of the speech was a free-form ramble, as Trump careened from grievances to fear-mongering to goofiness. He said the “fake news” and “big tech” were conspiring against him, predicted that a Joe Biden victory would trigger a depression “maybe (like) 1929,” and said — falsely — that Californians are required to always wear “special masks” and joked that “when you eat spaghetti and meatballs, it looks like you got in a fight with (Ultimate Fighting Championship president) Dana White,” who was in the audience.

“A typical incumbent is usually running on his record and selling more of that,” said Casey Dominguez, a professor of political science at UC San Diego and co-editor of the book “The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2020.” “But President Trump is just not that. He’s never been a conventional candidate, and this is part of it.”

Trump is spending the campaign’s last days attacking Biden as “sleepy” or “radical” or as an unwitting vessel for socialism. The Democratic challenger isn’t dwelling on his plans either, focusing more on what he portrays as Trump’s fumbles in handling the coronavirus pandemic.

Biden, however, won the Democratic nomination not with a slew of policy proposals, but by convincing voters that he could win back enough moderates with an insult-free campaign of reuniting a divided country to defeat Trump. Still, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Biden’s top primary rival and now a campaign surrogate, said last week on MSNBC that the nominee “could have done better ... to not only talk about Trump, but talk about Biden’s vision for the working class of this country. The Biden people have not talked about that agenda.”

Vision is something that’s lacking from Trump’s closing message as well. Instead, he is trying to re-create the insurgent, last-minute magic that delivered him the presidency four years ago.

He says his advisers tell him he should be talking more about the economy, one of few areas where voters still give him higher marks than Biden. On Thursday, the Commerce Department estimated that the nation’s gross domestic product grew by more than 7.4% in the third quarter, a 33.1% annual rate. That growth helped the nation’s economy recover about two-thirds of the ground it has lost since the pandemic struck.

But that number also risks reminding voters of other statistics, such as the pandemic’s death toll of more than 229,000 Americans and spiking infection rates in more than 40 states.

Trump told a rally audience in Florida on Thursday that he’d rather talk about something else: Hunter Biden, the nominee’s son, and his business dealings in Ukraine and China.

“I get a call from all the experts,” Trump said, “guys who have run for president six, seven, eight times. ... (They say) ‘Sir, you should not be talking about Hunter. You shouldn’t be saying bad things about Biden because nobody cares.’ I disagree. Maybe that’s why I’m here and they’re not.”

Touting his success won’t matter, Trump said, because outside of Fox News, most mainstream outlets “will say nothing” about the positive economic report — which, in fact, was a lead story on many news outlets.

Trump hasn’t offered much detail on his second-term plans for months, even when asked by friendly interviewers like Fox News commentator Sean Hannity. That’s a change from his 2016 campaign.

Then, Trump promised to be the voice of “the forgotten men and women of this country” whose jobs had been exported by “unfair trade deals,” which he would get rid of. He said he would bring back manufacturing jobs and build a wall on the southern border, paid for by Mexico, to keep out undocumented immigrants.

That tightly targeted pitch has devolved into buckshot this year.

“The president’s message was more focused in 2016, and his close was probably stronger,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the election analysis hub at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

“The president has struggled to articulate a message for a second term,” Kondik said. “It is also a president who has struggled to expand his base of support over the past four years.”

Instead of talking about what he might do in a second term, Trump has warned of the dangers of electing Biden. The day protests began in Philadelphia last week in reaction to the fatal police shooting of Walter Wallace Jr., a 27-year-old Black man who was holding a knife, the Trump campaign released an ad with images of cities in flames. “While America’s cities burned,” it said, “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris fanned the flames, refusing to strongly condemn violence.”

That is inaccurate. Both have condemned violence multiple times. Analysts say it is another example of how Trump’s messaging has been more frequently about Biden than about his own plans. A New York Times analysis last month found that 80% of Trump’s ads have been negative or a contrast with Biden and “62% were all-out attacks.” The study found that 60% of Biden’s ads were negative or contrast pieces and 7% were “outright negative.”

Aaron Kall, editor of “Debating the Donald,” a book on debating Trump, said the president’s rhetoric is “effective at rallying his base. But it’s not appealing to moderates, independents and those he must win over.”

When Trump does talk about what he will do in a second term, he speaks in shorthand.

“A vote for me is a vote for massive middle-class tax cuts, regulation cuts, fair trade, strong borders and American energy independence,” Trump said in Bullhead City. “It is a vote to support our police, support our military, defend our Second Amendment — which is under siege — stand up to China and ensure that more products are proudly stamped with that beautiful phrase, ‘Made in the U.S.A.’

“We will deliver record prosperity, epic job growth and a safe vaccine is coming very quickly ... that will quickly end the pandemic,” Trump said.

But such detours to what he’d do in his second term are typically brief at Trump’s rallies. While Biden’s closing argument has been long on talking about healing the nation, he also spends time looking forward on some topics, particularly health care — an issue that resonates with many voters who have lost their insurance along with their jobs during the pandemic.

He promised to “restore Obamacare — we will strengthen and build on it. So you can keep your private insurance or choose a Medicare-like public option.”

Dominguez, the UC San Diego political scientist, said Democrats “usually have a higher bar when it comes to talking more about policy. There are a lot of different constituencies (in the party) with specific demands about policies that you have to mention. And I think Biden’s done a pretty good job of being specific about what he’d do.”

She said one of the most important things a candidate can do in the final days is grab an undecided voter’s attention.

“Sometimes,” Dominguez said, “the last thing that they hear is what’s going to help them decide.”

Joe Garofoli is The San Francisco Chronicle’s senior political writer. Email: [email protected] Twitter: @joegarofoli