Democrat Mark Kelly widens lead over Republican Martha McSally in post-debate Senate poll

Democrat Mark Kelly widens lead over Republican Martha McSally in post-debate Senate poll

A new poll taken after Arizona's only U.S. Senate debate shows no sign of a comeback for Republican Sen. Martha McSally, who continues to trail Democratic challenger Mark Kelly in the race.

A Monmouth University poll released Thursday found Kelly led McSally by margins ranging from 10 percentage points among registered voters to 6 points under different turnout scenarios.

The telephone poll of 502 Arizona registered voters was taken between Oct. 9 and Oct. 13 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The McSally-Kelly debate was Oct. 6.

Monmouth University is one of only six pollsters nationally with an A+ rating from the website FiveThirtyEight, which tracks polling nationally and state by state.

“Both campaigns have been trying to paint their opponents in a negative light,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Among that all-important group of independent voters, the image of McSally as a rubber stamp for Trump has more resonance than Kelly being portrayed as in lockstep with the left.”

A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken completely after the debate and completed Wednesday showed Kelly leading McSally by 11 percentage points. A poll by the GOP-leaning Trafalgar Group that began the day of the debate showed Kelly leading by 2 points.

Kelly has led in publicly released polling throughout the year and the latest results suggest that hasn't changed as Arizona voters begin to cast their ballots. Real Clear Politics showed Kelly with an 8 percentage point lead over McSally in its polling average on Wednesday.

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The new round of polling comes after McSally challenged Kelly throughout their only scheduled debate on his candor with voters and after she asserted he would be an accessory to what she views as Democrats' socialist agenda.

McSally begins Arizona's early voting period in different fashion than she did in her 2018 loss to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz. McSally had a fractional edge over Sinema in mid-October, according to polling tracked by Real Clear Politics.

She wound up losing that race by 2.3 percentage points.

Gov. Doug Ducey appointed McSally to the state's other Senate seat after that loss. The current election is to let voters determine who should complete the final two years of the six-year term won by the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

The Monmouth poll found Kelly leads McSally by 10 points among registered voters, 52% to 42%, a larger lead than his margin in previous Monmouth polls from September and March.

Kelly’s lead is 10 points in a high-turnout scenario, but shrinks to 6 points in a low-turnout scenario, to 51% to 45%.

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The biggest demographic shift in preferences among voters is reflected in voters from different age groups.

McSally gained among older voters aged 50 to 64 but Kelly has pulled ahead among voters under 50 years old. He has a 55%-37% advantage over McSally in that age group.

Among voters aged 65 and older, Kelly maintains a sizable 55% to 40% advantage over McSally. That lead may be in large part due to the new coronavirus pandemic, which has left the elderly far more vulnerable compared with younger people.

Kelly, a retired NASA astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., has a net positive rating from registered voters, at 44% favorable and 32% unfavorable. That is down from his 48% favorable to 29% unfavorable rating last month.

McSally is underwater with voters: She earned a 33% favorable and 45% unfavorable rating, which was more negative than her 40% favorable to 42% unfavorable rating last month.

And more Arizona voters think McSally has been too supportive of President Donald Trump: 49% said she has been too supportive of him while 38% say she has supported him the right amount.

Voters are more evenly divided on Kelly’s potential allegiance to the party, if he were elected. Forty-five percent think he would be more beholden to the left wing of the Democratic Party while 43% think he would be “more of an independent voice,” according to the poll.

Among crucial independent voters, most think McSally is too close to Trump. They are less likely to see Kelly as beholden to the left.

Reach the reporter Yvonne Wingett Sanchez at [email protected] or 602-444-4712. Follow her on Twitter @yvonnewingett.

Reach the reporter Ronald J. Hansen at [email protected] or 602-444-4493. Follow him on Twitter @ronaldjhansen.

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