Excess COVID death study: 75K more died in US than previously recorded

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About 75,000 more Americans died from COVID-19 pandemic than reported in spring and summer, study finds

Show Caption Hide Caption US hits 200,000 COVID deaths as flu season looms ahead The U.S. has reached 200,000 deaths from the coronavirus. Now experts are looking ahead, and the forecast for the fall and winter isn't good.

The coronavirus pandemic may have caused tens of thousands of more deaths in the spring and summer than previously thought, a new study says.

Researchers at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond found nearly 75,000 more people may have died from the pandemic than what was recorded in March to July, according to the report published Monday in the peer-reviewed journal JAMA.

By examining death certificates, the study found more than 150,000 deaths were officially attributed to COVID-19 during that period. But researchers determined that nearly 75,000 additional deaths were indirectly caused by the pandemic, bringing the total number of deaths for those four months to more than 225,000.

Johns Hopkins University data puts the total COVID-19 death toll in the U.S. at just below 215,000.

“There have been some conspiracy theories that the number of deaths from COVID-19 have been exaggerated,” said Dr. Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond. “The opposite is the case. We’re actually experiencing more death than we thought we were.”

Woolf says the deaths indirectly caused by the pandemic came from illnesses such as Alzheimer's disease, diabetes and heart disease, which sharply increased in the same five states that recorded the most COVID-19 deaths.

Delayed care, fear of seeking care or emotional crises stemming from the pandemic could have also contributed to these deaths, he says, as well as inaccurate death certificates that may have misidentified a COVID-19 death.

Woolf saw a similar pattern in a previous study by researchers at Virginia Commonwealth and Yale universities that looked at excess deaths early in the pandemic, from March to April.

In that study, researchers found deaths from these other diseases spiked in states like New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, where coronavirus cases surged during the beginning of the pandemic. In June and July, Woolf said similar deaths spiked in Southern states that experienced a summer surge in coronavirus cases.

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Another notable finding is how long the surges lasted in various states. According to the study, the level of excess deaths in New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts were immense but short-lived, resulting in a “A-shaped” model.

In Sunbelt states, however, excess deaths began to gradually increase at the beginning of the pandemic then skyrocket in June, rising until Woolf’s team ended its research in July.

“This suggests it has some policy implications in terms of the consequences of the decision of some states to ease restrictions early in the pandemic,” he said. “It’s sort of a warning call going forward.”

Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease physician and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said the study confirms what doctors see every day in the hospital and underscored how badly federal officials have performed during the pandemic.

While the study may be only a snapshot of March through July, he says the country is still seeing an excess of deaths from the coronavirus.

“The fact is even now in the fall with all the knowledge and the new tools ... this is still killing people at a rate that’s much too high,” Adalja said.

The study contributes to research from the University of Washington that suggests nearly 400,000 people will die this year from COVID-19 or consequences of the pandemic. JAMA editor-in-chief Dr. Howard Bauchner said in a journal editorial published Monday the number of excess of deaths “cannot be overstated.”

“These deaths reflect a true measure of the human cost of the Great Pandemic of 2020,” he wrote.

Follow Adrianna Rodriguez on Twitter: @AdriannaUSAT.

Health and patient safety coverage at USA TODAY is made possible in part by a grant from the Masimo Foundation for Ethics, Innovation and Competition in Healthcare. The Masimo Foundation does not provide editorial input.

jessiebeex on October 12nd, 2020 at 21:06 UTC »

My grandpa died in September due to a heart attack caused by a fall. His mobility declined greatly due to the stay at home order and little reason to get up and move around (his food was brought to his door by the staff where he lived). While COVID isn’t the cause of death and his heart had problems, he may have lived longer had the pandemic not happened.

lost_in_life_34 on October 12nd, 2020 at 19:47 UTC »

I don't know if they all had the virus, but in NYC there were a lot of people who had various illnesses who couldn't get treatment and many of them died

jakdak on October 12nd, 2020 at 18:39 UTC »

Unpossible. My high school friend on Facebook watched a YouTube video that said that all the Covid deaths were made up because the hospitals got paid extra for it.