Background Weeks after issuing social distancing orders to suppress severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and reduce growth in cases of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), all U.S. states and the District of Columbia partially or fully relaxed these measures.
Methods We identified all statewide social distancing measures that were implemented and/or relaxed in the U.S. between March 10-July 15, 2020, triangulating data from state government and third-party sources. Using segmented linear regression, we estimated the extent to which relaxation of social distancing affected epidemic control, as indicated by the time-varying, state-specific effective reproduction number (R t ).
Results In the eight weeks prior to relaxation, mean R t declined by 0.012 units per day (95% CI, -0.013 to -0.012), and 46/51 jurisdictions achieved R t < 1.0 by the date of relaxation. After relaxation of social distancing, R t reversed course and began increasing by 0.007 units per day (95% CI, 0.006-0.007), reaching a mean R t of 1.16 eight weeks later, with only 9/51 jurisdictions maintaining R t <1.0. Parallel models showed similar reversals in the growth of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Indicators often used to motivate relaxation at the time of relaxation (e.g. test positivity rate <5%) predicted greater post-relaxation epidemic growth.
GruntsLyfe69 on October 6th, 2020 at 16:37 UTC »
Remember when this things started they said 2 weeks would flatten the curve? I was extremely isolated for the first 6 months of this year because I was caring for someone who was extremely compromised. Because of a lack of information, people are tired. Now we are back to the old adage of “give them an inch, the take a mile” and people will start to understand why people won’t budge on gun laws. This is turning into politics at its nastiest.
diamondpython on October 6th, 2020 at 13:21 UTC »
So if early relaxation causes an upsurge, at what point does relaxation no longer become early? When there are no more positive cases? When a vaccine hits? After a certain number of people get it?
Same-Soup on October 6th, 2020 at 11:25 UTC »