US coronavirus deaths projected to more than double to 410,000 by year's end

Authored by smh.com.au and submitted by ravedog

"Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year," the institute said. It previously projected 317,697 deaths by December 1. The model's outlook for the world was even more dire, with deaths projected to triple to 2.8 million by January 1, 2021. The US, which has the world's third largest population, leads the planet with more than 186,000 COVID-19 deaths and 6.1 million coronavirus infections.

The institute made waves earlier this year when its aggressive forecasts contrasted with President Donald Trump's repeated statements that the coronavirus would disappear. But deaths have surpassed some of the institute's dire predictions, which have been frequently updated to reflect new data, revised assumptions and more sophisticated information sources. The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention issues forecasts only four weeks in advance, and its latest estimate is for 200,000 to 211,000 dead by September 26. But the institute said with so many Americans still refusing to wear masks, there remains "an extraordinary opportunity" to save lives. "Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 288,000, or 122,000 lives saved compared to the reference scenario," it said. "Mask use continues to decline from a peak in early August. Declines are notable throughout the Midwest, including in some states such as Illinois and Iowa with increasing case numbers," the report said.

Although US infections have declined to about 45,000 per day from a peak of around 70,000 per day in July, COVID-19 was the second leading cause of death, the institute said. That would place it behind only heart disease, having surpassed cancer as a cause of death in the US. Infection rates have recently fallen in large states such as Texas, Florida and California, leading to the national decline in cases. But 10 states, many of them in the Midwest, still average more than one secondary case per infected person, an indication of rapid spreading, the report said. Berlusconi in hospital with COVID-19 pneumonia Italy's former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, in hospital after contracting coronavirus, has mild pneumonia in both lungs but is breathing on his own, and his condition is not worrying, his doctor Alberto Zangrillo said on Friday.

Former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi has been admitted to hospital. Credit:AP Zangrillo said the infection had been caught at a very early stage. "His clinical condition at the present time ... is quiet and comforting," Zangrillo told a news conference at Milan's San Raffaele hospital, which admitted Berlusconi late on Thursday, a day after the 83-year-old tested positive. "The clinical indicators are reassuring and I am optimistic," said the doctor. Zangrillo, who stirred controversy in May when he said coronavirus was losing its potency, told reporters he had decided to hospitalise Berlusconi as a precautionary measure given his age and previous health problems.

The media tycoon underwent major heart surgery in 2016 and has also survived prostrate cancer. France's daily COVID-19 cases hit record France recorded almost 9000 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, setting a record since the beginning of the pandemic, while more people were also hospitalised as a result of the disease. Health authorities said in a statement that there had been 8975 new confirmed cases, almost 1500 higher than the previous March 31 daily peak of 7578, when France was in one of Europe's strictest coronavirus lockdowns. The surge in parts of France, which is partially due to increased testing, has meant a dozen schools have been forced to close just days into the new academic year.

Loading The seven-day moving average of new infections stood at an eighth consecutive record of 6011, versus a low of 272 on May 27 - two weeks after authorities lifted the two-month-long lockdown. The cumulative number of cases now totals 309,156. As the rise in infections has mainly affected young people, who are less likely to develop complications, there has so far been less strain on French hospitals, which were almost overwhelmed at the end of March. But after falling steadily for months after an April 14 peak of 32,292, the number of people hospitalised was up by 28 on Friday to 4671, rising for a sixth day in a row.

Among those, the number of people in intensive care units for COVID-19 rose by 9 to 473, far below the April 8 record of 7148, but increasing for an eighth consecutive day. Loading Replay Replay video Play video Play video UN: No vaccine to be endorsed before it's safe and effective The head of the World Health Organisation said the UN health agency will not recommend any COVID-19 vaccine before it is proved safe and effective, even as Russia and China have started using their experimental vaccines before large studies have finished and other countries have proposed streamlining authorisation procedures. At a briefing on Friday, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said vaccines have been used successfully for decades, and credited them with eradicating smallpox and bringing polio to the brink of being eliminated.

"I would like to assure the public that WHO will not endorse a vaccine that's not effective and safe," Tedros said. He said newly developed Ebola vaccines helped end the recent Ebola outbreak in Congo, noting that stopping the deadly virus was complicated by the dozens of armed groups operating in the region. Tedros appealed to people opposed to vaccination to do their own research. "The anti-vaccine movement, they can build narratives to fight against vaccines but the track record of vaccines tells its own story and people should not be confused," he said, appealing to parents in particular. "They can have a look for themselves on how the world actually used vaccines to reduce under-5 mortality to save children." Last week, Britain said it was preparing to revise its laws so that any effective coronavirus vaccine could be used before it was fully licensed. Loading

chromegreen on September 5th, 2020 at 13:24 UTC »

It sounds unlikely but keep in mind a virus is continuously testing the willingness and ability of people to keep it contained. It doesn't get tired or bored. As shown by the resurgence in Europe, any complacency will result in more outbreaks. The worst outbreaks in the US are in less populated areas right now so total case numbers are relatively low but they serve as a reservoir for rapidly spreading to other areas if given the opportunity.

One concerning aspect in the US is the lack of incentive for people to voluntarily seek testing. The testing delays, uncertain costs and risk of being out of work or school combined with leadership constantly downplaying the issue discourages people from seeking testing. As a result the ability to detect and contain outbreaks early is more limited than it should be. The new case rate in the US has been flat for more than two weeks now and, with growing outbreaks in the Midwest, is likely to trend upward again.

Inmyprime- on September 5th, 2020 at 13:06 UTC »

“Tedros appealed to people opposed to vaccination to do their own research.”

Not sure this is such a good idea. These people go on 4chan and Qanal groups to do their research...

decaturbob on September 5th, 2020 at 12:01 UTC »

amazing since we were told this a hoax and be over by Easter.