Donald Trump’s decision to step back from international climate action pushes any prospect of hitting global emissions targets to “near zero”, according to new analysis.
Widely viewed as “disastrous”, there was speculation the decision could both lead to higher emissions and trigger an “avalanche” of further departures.
However, according to the authors of the new paper, actual analysis of this historic event’s impact has been “sparse”.
Such models are useful for understanding “adaptive systems” like the Paris Agreement that change in response to internal changes.
In such scenarios, the 10-year delay in US emissions cuts the researchers expect will result from a longer Trump presidency has far-reaching effects.
It ends up delaying both global emissions reductions and the world’s “net-zero” date by a decade as well.
This means even if their emissions cuts were large the political impact on other nations would not be eliminated. »
