JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A Jacksonville infectious disease specialist who is studying the spread of COVID-19 in Duval County said the decision made by Mayor Lenny Curry to reopen Jacksonville’s beaches for physical activity on Friday was not the right move.
“I think we’re prematurely opening up the beaches,” said Dr. Mohammed Reza. “The way I can describe it is, I prescribe you a prescription for 10 days for a bacterial infection. You take that for two or three days and you’re feeling better, ‘Oh, I don’t need to take it anymore.’ That’s exactly what we’re doing at this point. This is scary because that infection will get a lot worse and come back with a vengeance. We know this from other countries.”
RELATED | Jacksonville infectious disease specialist: ‘I think we’re prematurely opening up the beaches’
Dr. Reza is part of a team of other medical professionals who founded COVIDIQ.org, a non-profit dedicated to better tracking and understanding the novel coronavirus and the impact it’s having on communities.
Since COVIDIQ.org launched April 2, nearly 500 people throughout Jacksonville have participated in the nationwide survey.
“In Duval County, from April 9 through April 16, the number of people that reported symptoms consistent with COVID19 has gone from 11 percent to now 15 percent,” Reza said. “That’s close to over 40,000 people who have started developing symptoms.”
Dr. Reza is aware that the estimate is much higher than the number that has been reported by the Florida Department of Health. According to data released Sunday morning by the Department of Health, 847 people in Jacksonville have tested positive for COVID-19.
But Reza said the disconnect is happening because most areas don’t have accessibility to adequate testing.
“We don’t have that antibody testing we need,” he said. “This virus is a lot more spread throughout our communities than what we’re picking up at this point.”
To participate in the free and confidential viral syndrome surveillance survey, go to COVIDIQ.org or text “TOGETHER” to 203-204-9964. Questions on the survey include gender, age, ethnicity, symptoms and zip code. Those without symptoms are also encouraged to participate.
“We’re following people every five days and seeing if they develop symptoms,” Reza said. “You can text “update” and receive real-time data from Johns Hopkins University to let you know in your county what the rate of infection is.”
The data collected is based on major and minor criteria.
Major: Fever, cough, shortness of breath
Minor: Headache; fatigue; loss of appetite, sense of smell and taste; body aches and sore throat; diarrhea
Dr. Reza said having or developing two major criteria, a combination of one major and two minor criteria or three minor criteria is concerning.
Dr. Reza said people need to remain vigilant and practice safe and healthy social distancing.
MoffieHanson on April 21st, 2020 at 11:45 UTC »
To bad some people think they are experts by watching edited youtube videos explaining its a hoax. How the hell can u even think its a hoax. And yeah wen lock down is finished im chosing to lock myself away for at least 2 weeks more.
Half_Croc on April 21st, 2020 at 10:42 UTC »
I don't think many people understand the nature of exponential spread. e.g 4 weeks lock-down might "buy" you 4 weeks of time before shit gets bad again. 8 weeks lock-down could maybe buy you 20 weeks.
Those are just examples but the point is the gains are exponential too GOD DAMMIT. It's stupid to throw away a good start.EDIT: for some of you maybe it's best to re-frame from another angle:
Think of it like we're setting the board up to play a game... we could set the board up with a low case count. It will take initial work to get there but once we're "playing" then LIGHT restrictions will be good enough to keep numbers hovering steady, low and manageable.
Or... we can leave the board set in a chaotic state. With these very same LIGHT restrictions we'd experience more suffering week on week. This is because light restrictions are not enough to put a lid on a virus with such a head start - we'd need sustained MEDIUM restrictions to put a lid on that. Sustained medium restrictions on a high case count might keep the level steady. But it'll be steady at a high level and will not be fun for the economy OR the hospitals.
Right now we're in need of HEAVY restrictions to pull things back until conditions are right for LIGHT restrictions. Going from HEAVY to LIGHT is more efficient and enjoyable in the long term than flirting with MEDIUM.
In both scenarios above you still have the same freedoms - one is just worse than the other due to starting conditions. If the price to play the nicer game is another month of lock-down, then it seems worth it. Much of the sunk cost in shutting down the economy is done already so we may as well do the job properly.
ContentsMayVary on April 21st, 2020 at 09:50 UTC »
I prefer the parachute analogy.
"Oh, this parachute has slowed my descent. Guess I can take it off now!".