Why ‘Knives Out’ Is A Rare Box Office Triumph For Original Movies

Daniel Craig and Ana De Armas in Rian Johnson's 'Knives Out' Lionsgate

Knives Out finally fell out of the top ten in its tenth weekend of release, placing 11th place last weekend with a Fri-Sun gross of $2.75 million (-22%). It again had the first or second-smallest drop in the top ten or 12 for the ninth weekend in a row, alongside the also very-leggy likes of Parasite, Little Women and Jumanji: The Next Level. That brings its domestic total up to $155.7 million. Not only is that a 3.8x multiplier from its $41 million Wed-Sun debut (which is huge for a Thanksgiving opener), but it is just over the (unadjusted) $155 million domestic cume of Dwayne Johnson’s earthquake thriller San Andreas. That means Knives Out is one of the very biggest non-horror live-action originals in unadjusted domestic box office since Chris Nolan’s Interstellar ($188 million) in late 2014.

It’s no secret that the old-school original studio programmer has become a quasi-endangered species over the last several years. It’s not that audiences only want to see blockbusters and franchise-friendly tentpoles in theaters, but rather that the audience that once saw both Aladdin and Booksmart, or both Men in Black International and Late Night, now show up (relatively speaking) for the former but either skip the latter or wait until it’s available for “free” on Netflix, Amazon or Hulu. With high quality at-home viewing (via laptop or HDTV) increasingly affordable, theatrical moviegoing is no longer the value it once was. Ticket prices have risen with inflation in a way other entertainment options have not. For example, I paid the same $50-$60 for Super Mario Party in 2019 as I did for Super Mario Bros. 3 in 1989.

In 2015, I was able to easily to a beginning-of-year list of ten high-profile original studio releases that might break out. By 2016, after many of those (Tomorrowland, Blackhat, etc.) bombed, I struggled to find even a handful of “new-to-cinema” (let alone original) biggies. By late 2016, Sony’s Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt sci-fi romance/thriller Passengers was already viewed as a test case because it was a star-driven, $90 million original sci-fi flick. It earned $100 million domestic and $303 million worldwide, but with mediocre reviews and indifferent buzz. I still believe that the relative death of the high concept original is almost entirely due to the death of the movie star as a “face on the poster” draw. When actors and actresses are “brands” unto themselves, audiences will show up for an original or high concept movie.

Audiences didn’t flock to Jerry McGuire, Hitch and My Best Friend’s Wedding because they were thrilled by the original high concept/elevator pitches. They showed up for those Sony releases because they wanted to see romantic melodramas/comedies featuring Tom Cruise, Will Smith and Julia Roberts. Sometimes it was “star+concept” like Harrison Ford AS “Mr. Ass-Kicking President” in Air Force One. Yes, Sony made its fortune on movie stars (including many Adam Sandler vehicles) and struggled when the bottom fell out under that formula. Hollywood isn’t rebooting or recycling because they ran out of ideas, but rather because audiences, fair or not, comparatively stopped showing up to “new to you” star+concept theatrical releases. The best we can hope for is Ocean’s 8, which took a known IP but otherwise crafted an original heist movie starring a murderer’s row of actresses.

Knives Out is a rarity, in that it’s a wholly original, star-and-filmmaker-driven live-action feature aimed toward adults (and smart kids) that has succeeded alongside Frozen II and Jumanji 3. It’s not an either/or scenario. Knives Out is a hit because the folks that might otherwise have stayed home and streamed, whether or not they saw the big event movies in theaters, also showed up for the studio programmer too. It’s not a matter of seeing Knives Out instead of The Rise of Skywalker, but rather audiences choosing to see Knives Out AND The Rise of Skywalker. Rian Johnson’s light-on-its-feet (but deadly serious in its politics) star-studded murder mystery is an example of how to get folks into theaters for a non-tentpole. It’s filled with names, has a well-respected director, and promises a good time at the movies.

That’s not unlike the formula, give or take a variable, for Ford v Ferrari, Baby Driver, Hustlers and Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (yes, that’s a sequel, but humor me for a moment). And yes, relatively speaking, that works for breakout horror hits like Jordan Peele’s Get Out, M. Night Shyamalan’s Split and John Krasinski’s A Quiet Place. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all three horror movies ended either on an upbeat note or (like Split’s twisty epilogue) something intended to send audiences out of the theaters buzzing. It’s not an exact match (Us didn’t exactly end on a happy note), but audiences showing up for a movie need some kind of guarantee that it won’t be a giant cinematic bummer. The real world is bad enough, so escapism is the key.

With $156 million domestic (already past La La Land’s $151 million cume), Knives Out is, give or take Chris Nolan’s “based on a true story” World War II thriller Dunkirk ($190 million in 2017), the biggest non-horror live-action original in five years. Yes, its likely over/under $165 million domestic cume will come in under Get Out ($175 million), Us ($175 million) and A Quiet Place ($188 million), but it’s not a high-concept horror movie. And, yes, I’d wager that Chris Nolan’s Tenet will make more than $190 million domestic when it opens in July of this summer, presuming it delivers the time-traveling blockbuster goods (and is appropriate for most kids), but now it’s a contest. Whether you count Dunkirk as an original, Knives Out is a huge win for non-IP, adult-skewing, star-driven, marquee-directed studio releases.