Trump could lose popular vote by 5 million but still win 2020 election, Michael Moore warns

Michael Moore has warned Donald Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 million but still win the 2020 election, given the Electoral College system.

In 2016, Mr Trump won almost 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton but comfortably won the election by winning key states.

Mr Moore, who correctly predicted Mr Trump’s first election victory, has warned that the same thing could happen in 2020, even with a bigger victory for the Democratic candidate in the popular vote.

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“I believe whoever the Democrat is next year is going to win by 4 to 5 million popular votes,” the filmmaker told Democracy Now.

“The problem is… if the vote were today, I believe, he [Mr Trump] would win the electoral states that he would need because living out there, I will tell you, his level of support has not gone down one inch.”

Shape Created with Sketch. Donald Trump celebrity president: A decade in two halves Show all 29 left Created with Sketch. right Created with Sketch. Shape Created with Sketch. Donald Trump celebrity president: A decade in two halves 1/29 Trump styles his 'You're fired!' pose in his Trump Tower office in June 2012. At the time he was known as a reality TV star on The Apprentice Diane Bondareff/Invision/AP 2/29 He was also well known as the patron of the Miss Universe competition Getty 3/29 Early signs of Trump's ambition for the presidency can be found everywhere. Not least in his 2011 book 'Time to get tough: Making America #1 again' Getty 4/29 Trump with Piers Morgan in November 2010. Piers Morgan has long held that he and Trump are good friends Getty 5/29 Trump appeared on Fox & Friends, his favourite show, in August 2011 Getty 6/29 Trump considered running in the 2012 election, where he would have faced Barack Obama. He is speaking here at an event for a Republican women's group Getty 7/29 Trump was subject to a Comedy Central roast in 2011. He is pictured here being roasted by rapper Snoop Dogg Getty 8/29 Given that this Trump store is in the lobby of Trump Tower, it can be said that Trump sells merchandise of himself out of his own home Getty 9/29 Trump held meetings with prominent Republicans when considering his 2012 bid. He is pictured here with Alaska governor Sarah Palin Getty 10/29 He didn't end up running in 2012 afterall, instead endorsing Republican candidate Mitt Romney AFP/Getty 11/29 Trump's golf course in Aberdeen proved controversial in 2012 when he began lobbying the Scottish government against wind power in order that they wouldn't install turbines off the shore by his new course Getty 12/29 He even gave evidence to a Scottish parliamentary committee discouraging wind energy AFP/Getty 13/29 He still found time for a round of course AFP/Getty 14/29 On 16 June 2015, Trump announced that he would run for the presidency of the United States in the 2016 election as a Republican Getty 15/29 His campaign was divisive, courting controversy wherever he went. Ultimately he was declared the Republican candidate in June 2016 Getty 16/29 Trump took part in the TV debate against opponent Hillary Clinton on 9 October Getty 17/29 Trump and wife Melania vote in the presidential election on 8 November 2016 AFP/Getty 18/29 Hillary Clinton conceded defeat at 2:50am on 9 November and president-elect Trump swiftly delivered his victory speech to a crowd of supporters Getty 19/29 News coverage around the world focused on the huge political upset that Trump's victory spelled AFP/Getty 20/29 Trump met with president Obama to discusss transition planning on 10 November. Obama had fiercely denounced Trump during the election campaign, at one point even swearing that he would not leave the White House if Trump won AFP/Getty 21/29 Donald Trump and Nigel Farage pose in the golden elevator at Trump Tower on 12 November 2016. Farage was the first British politician to meet with Trump after the election LeaveEUOffical/Twitter 22/29 The inauguration of Donald Trump took place on 20 January 2017. Trump's press secretary Sean Spicer boasted that the crowd was the 'largest ever' to witness an inauguration, a claim that was proved not to be true Getty 23/29 In his first 100 days as leader, Trump signed 24 executve orders, the most of any president AFP/Getty 24/29 One of Trump's most memorable election pledges was to build a wall between the US and Mexico. He is standing here in front of a prototype for a section of the wall Getty 25/29 Trump's meetings with other world leaders have provided no short supply of photo opportunities Getty 26/29 Trump was welcomed to the UK by the Queen and a state banquet was held at Buckingham Palace in his honour Reuters 27/29 Not everyone welcomed the president. Mass protests were held in London throughout his visits in both 2018 and 2019 EPA 28/29 One of the most significant meetings Trump has held with another leader was with North Korea's Kim Jong Un. In June 2019, Trump became the first sitting president to set foot in North Korea Getty 29/29 2020 will see president Trump fight for a second term in office, who knows what the next decade will bring? Getty 1/29 Trump styles his 'You're fired!' pose in his Trump Tower office in June 2012. At the time he was known as a reality TV star on The Apprentice Diane Bondareff/Invision/AP 2/29 He was also well known as the patron of the Miss Universe competition Getty 3/29 Early signs of Trump's ambition for the presidency can be found everywhere. Not least in his 2011 book 'Time to get tough: Making America #1 again' Getty 4/29 Trump with Piers Morgan in November 2010. Piers Morgan has long held that he and Trump are good friends Getty 5/29 Trump appeared on Fox & Friends, his favourite show, in August 2011 Getty 6/29 Trump considered running in the 2012 election, where he would have faced Barack Obama. He is speaking here at an event for a Republican women's group Getty 7/29 Trump was subject to a Comedy Central roast in 2011. He is pictured here being roasted by rapper Snoop Dogg Getty 8/29 Given that this Trump store is in the lobby of Trump Tower, it can be said that Trump sells merchandise of himself out of his own home Getty 9/29 Trump held meetings with prominent Republicans when considering his 2012 bid. He is pictured here with Alaska governor Sarah Palin Getty 10/29 He didn't end up running in 2012 afterall, instead endorsing Republican candidate Mitt Romney AFP/Getty 11/29 Trump's golf course in Aberdeen proved controversial in 2012 when he began lobbying the Scottish government against wind power in order that they wouldn't install turbines off the shore by his new course Getty 12/29 He even gave evidence to a Scottish parliamentary committee discouraging wind energy AFP/Getty 13/29 He still found time for a round of course AFP/Getty 14/29 On 16 June 2015, Trump announced that he would run for the presidency of the United States in the 2016 election as a Republican Getty 15/29 His campaign was divisive, courting controversy wherever he went. Ultimately he was declared the Republican candidate in June 2016 Getty 16/29 Trump took part in the TV debate against opponent Hillary Clinton on 9 October Getty 17/29 Trump and wife Melania vote in the presidential election on 8 November 2016 AFP/Getty 18/29 Hillary Clinton conceded defeat at 2:50am on 9 November and president-elect Trump swiftly delivered his victory speech to a crowd of supporters Getty 19/29 News coverage around the world focused on the huge political upset that Trump's victory spelled AFP/Getty 20/29 Trump met with president Obama to discusss transition planning on 10 November. Obama had fiercely denounced Trump during the election campaign, at one point even swearing that he would not leave the White House if Trump won AFP/Getty 21/29 Donald Trump and Nigel Farage pose in the golden elevator at Trump Tower on 12 November 2016. Farage was the first British politician to meet with Trump after the election LeaveEUOffical/Twitter 22/29 The inauguration of Donald Trump took place on 20 January 2017. Trump's press secretary Sean Spicer boasted that the crowd was the 'largest ever' to witness an inauguration, a claim that was proved not to be true Getty 23/29 In his first 100 days as leader, Trump signed 24 executve orders, the most of any president AFP/Getty 24/29 One of Trump's most memorable election pledges was to build a wall between the US and Mexico. He is standing here in front of a prototype for a section of the wall Getty 25/29 Trump's meetings with other world leaders have provided no short supply of photo opportunities Getty 26/29 Trump was welcomed to the UK by the Queen and a state banquet was held at Buckingham Palace in his honour Reuters 27/29 Not everyone welcomed the president. Mass protests were held in London throughout his visits in both 2018 and 2019 EPA 28/29 One of the most significant meetings Trump has held with another leader was with North Korea's Kim Jong Un. In June 2019, Trump became the first sitting president to set foot in North Korea Getty 29/29 2020 will see president Trump fight for a second term in office, who knows what the next decade will bring? Getty

“In fact, I’d say it’s even more rabid than it was before, because they’re afraid now,” he added.

“They’re afraid he could lose, because they watched his behaviour. So they are voracious in their appetite for Donald Trump.”

Mr Moore also warned Democrats against picking a so-called moderate candidate and giving voters “another Hillary Clinton” if they want to win in 2020.

“If we go that route, it’s guaranteed we will lose the Electoral College. We will win when we put somebody on that ballot that excites the base – women, people of colour, young people,” he said.

Joe Biden, the former vice president, is currently leading the Democratic nomination contest, with senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in second and third place.

Recent polls have shown all three candidates could beat Mr Trump in the popular vote but it is unclear how they would do in the Electoral College system.

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Mr Moore has backed Mr Sanders for the Democratic nomination, but added he would also be satisfied with Ms Warren as the candidate.

Hours after the interview, Mr Trump appeared to endorse the filmmaker’s prediction by tweeting: “He made same prediction in 2016. Nobody ever said Michael was stupid!”

Mr Moore was one of the early mainstream commentators who called Mr Trump’s victory in 2016.

He also predicted that the Democrats would win in 2008 but wrongly predicted Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate, would win in 2012.

In US presidential elections, each state gets a number of electors based on its total number of representatives in Congress.

For example, Wyoming gets 3 electoral votes, while California gets 55 votes.

The system means it can be more useful for a candidate to win many states by small margins rather than win big majorities in large states.

In 2016, Ms Clinton won some populous states, such as New York and California, by more than 20 percentage points but lost swing states, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, by less than one percentage point.

This allowed Mr Trump to win the election without winning the popular vote.