Poll: Bernie, Warren surge to tie Biden atop Democratic field

Democratic presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are deadlocked among Democratic voters at 20 percent. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images 2020 Elections Poll: Bernie, Warren surge to tie Biden atop Democratic field 'The main takeaway,' says Monmouth University's pollster, 'is that the Democratic race has become volatile.'

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have surged to tie with Joe Biden atop the Democratic presidential field, according to a poll that suggests the three are solidifying their status as the top tier in the massive field.

The Monmouth University poll, released Monday, shows Sanders and Warren deadlocked among Democratic voters at 20 percent, with Biden a point behind, at 19 percent. No other candidate cracks double digits: Kamala Harris is in fourth place, at 8 percent.

Compared with the Monmouth poll in June, Sanders has ticked up 6 points, and Warren 5 points. Biden dropped 13 points, from 32 percent in June.

The poll shows Biden’s slippage coming across the Democratic electorate, rather than from a specific demographic or ideological group. He is down 14 points among white and nonwhite voters. He’s down 14 points among men, and 13 points among women. He’s down 15 points among voters younger than 50 years old, and 9 percent among voters 50 and older.

Biden also slipped 18 points among Democratic voters who described themselves as moderate or conservative, and 9 points among self-identified liberals.

“The main takeaway from this poll is that the Democratic race has become volatile,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Liberal voters are starting to cast about for a candidate they can identify with. Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden. But they are swinging more toward one of the left-leaning contenders with high name recognition rather than toward a lesser known candidate who might be more in line with them politically.”

The Monmouth poll is the first major national poll all year to show a candidate other than Biden in the lead. It differs from some surveys conducted over similar time periods. A CNN/SSRS national poll, conducted Aug. 15-18, showed Biden at 29 percent, significantly ahead of Sanders (15 percent) and Warren (14 percent).

The Monmouth poll, which was conducted Aug. 16-20, surveyed 298 Democratic voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.

Once the most popular candidate in the race, the Monmouth poll shows Biden’s favorable rating slipping, from 74 percent in June to 66 percent now. That is similar to favorable ratings for Warren (65 percent) and Sanders (64 percent).

But the percentage of Democratic voters who view Biden unfavorably has increased from 17 percent in June to 25 percent now. Warren’s unfavorable rating, 13 percent, is significantly lower, while Sanders matches Biden with a 24 percent unfavorable score.

Aside from the top three candidates — plus Harris in fourth place — no other candidate earns 5 percent support. Cory Booker and Pete Buttigieg are at 4 percent, and entrepreneur Andrew Yang is at 3 percent. Tying for eighth place at 2 percent are Julián Castro, Beto O’Rourke and Marianne Williamson.

Monmouth University's poll is approved by the Democratic National Committee for deciding which candidate's make the primary debates. But this survey offers virtually no help to candidates who haven’t already qualified for the third debate next month in Houston ahead of Wednesday’s deadline.

Candidates need to earn at least 2 percent in four DNC-approved polls released between June 28 and Wednesday, and receive donations from 130,000 individuals over the duration of the campaign. Ten candidates have already qualified: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Castro, Yang and O’Rourke.

Tom Steyer’s campaign says it has received donations from more than 130,000 people, but he is one poll short, having only earned 2 percent in three DNC-approved surveys. Monday’s Monmouth poll showed him at 0 percent.

Tulsi Gabbard has also met the donor threshold, but she is still two polls shy of the polling threshold after earning 1 percent in the Monmouth survey. Williamson has also crossed the donor mark, but her 2 percent in the Monmouth poll was only her first qualifying poll — and it’s highly unlikely she’ll get three more polls over the next two-and-a-half days.