Governments around the world are considering taxing red meat like tobacco in an effort to curb climate change

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A new report by Fitch Solutions reveals that a "sin tax" currently put on products like sugary drinks and tobacco could soon be applied to meat globally.

Like sugar, red meat has been linked to an increased risk of cancer, heart disease, stroke and diabetes.

This research follows a recent UN report that found that the human food system accounts for 37% of all greenhouse-gas emissions.

Introducing a tax on meat would likely accelerate the recent trend of vegetarian, vegan and "flexitarian" diets.

Fitch Solutions claims if taxes were as successful at constraining the global appetite for meat, the reduction in carbon emissions could be enormous.

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First the taxman came for your cigars, now he might be coming for your steak.

That's according to a new report sent to Business Insider by research company Fitch Solutions, which concluded that "sin taxes" – levies on products deemed undesirable like tobacco, sugary foods and drinks – could soon be applied to meat.

"Governments could leverage on this demand for more sustainability and tax the consumer instead of implementing stricter environmental production regulations," Fitch first suggested in May.

Since then, new research by the company predicts such a tax could go global, due to environmental, health and ethical concerns.

"The global rise of sugar taxes makes it easy to envisage a similar wave of regulatory measures targeting the meat industry," Fitch told Business Insider.

Read more: Why online-meat-delivery startups and imitation-meat brands are simultaneously thriving in today's food world

Just last week, a coalition of cross-party German politicians proposed hiking the value-added tax (VAT) on meat from 7% to 19% in the hopes of cutting consumption.

Like sugar, red meat has been linked to an increased risk of cancer, heart disease, stroke and diabetes, which Fitch said laid the groundwork for similar taxes. A study by University of Oxford, for example, found introducing the measure could prevent almost 6,000 deaths a year and save nearly $850 million in healthcare costs.

"A meat tax could, therefore, emerge as a policy sibling to the sugar tax, supported on the basis that meat does play a role in a balanced diet but over-consumption is a public health issue," it concluded.

Unlike sugar, however, the justification for restricting people's appetite for meat relates to broader issues than just health, with climate change, deforestation, and ethical concerns all looming large in the minds of consumers.

Read more: Most of the meat we eat won't come from animals by the year 2040, according to a report

It comes hot on the heels of a UN report which found that the human food system accounts for 37% of all greenhouse-gas emissions.

The production of meat – and especially red meat – is responsible for much of that. A 2011 study found that lamb, followed by beef, are by far the worst offenders.

These concerns have supported the growing uptake of meat-free diets. Meat alternatives have begun going mainstream, with companies like Beyond Meat enjoying considerable success.

"We are already witnessing consumers cut back on red meat across a number of developed markets globally, supported by the increasing popularity of vegan, vegetarian and 'flexitarian' diets. Younger, urbanised consumers are the main drivers of meat-free diets, suggesting that this will be a long-term trend," Fitch said.

"Introducing a tax on meat would likely accelerate this trend, encouraging consumers to moderate consumption of red meat by switching to poultry or plant-based proteins."

So how far could this spread?

Despite once being considered a fringe policy issue, sugar taxes certainly managed to spread around the world to countries as different as the UK, Mexico and Dubai — where the tax is a whopping 50%.

A meat tax could similarly raise prices to the point where consumption falls. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), taxes that hike the price of sugary drinks by 20%, reduce consumption by around the same amount.

If taxes were as successful at constraining the global appetite for meat, the reduction in carbon emissions could be enormous.

Goldsmiths, University of London announced on Monday that it would stop selling beef in hopes of combatting climate change. The UK's National Farmers Union said the decision to single out one food product as a response to global warming was "overly simplistic".

A recent study found that if the United States went meatless, it would be the equivalent of taking 60 million cars off the roads.

However, Fitch tipped cold water on that idea. It stated that it was "highly unlikely" that meat-lovers in the US and Brazil would use taxes to banish meat from menus.

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delibes on August 18th, 2019 at 22:15 UTC »

This seems entirely speculative and misleading. There happens to have been one proposal in Germany and I think that's it.

The linked Fitch report "Sustainability – Drivers And Implications For Agribusiness" in the BI article is not directly about this, but about agribusiness in general and one of the key points is:

We identify meat and palm oil consumption as the two industries most susceptible to undergo structural changes over the coming years.

It really doesn't talk about meat as much as palm oil. One place mentioning governments taxing meat is:

Governments could leverage on this demand for more sustainability and tax the consumer instead of implementing stricter environmental production regulations. Some may consider implementing a tax on meat, following on the model of the ongoing rise in ‘sugar taxes’ (see ‘Positive Sugar Consumption Outlook But 'War On Sugar' Gains Momentum’, August 21, 2018). However, we note that such a measure could be unpopular at a time of [MISSING!]

Yes the end of that paragraph really is missing. No idea what's going on there, but it's all just speculation. The BI article then pulls in a report about a German proposal to tax meat.

It later points out that meat is a commodity probably isn't a growth market, except perhaps poultry. Also beef consumption is dropping in many countries and artificial meat may be a threat.

BI article also points out that big consumers like China (added by me) , USA and Brazil wouldn't do this. I couldn't find the "highly unlikely" quote in the Fitch report at all:

However, Fitch tipped cold water on that idea. It stated that it was "highly unlikely" that meat-lovers in the US and Brazil would use taxes to banish meat from menus.

Puny-Earthling on August 18th, 2019 at 21:48 UTC »

Weren’t they going to begin farming that reg algae seaweed that stop cows from producing methane?

Cras_ on August 18th, 2019 at 21:42 UTC »

This is such a bullshit headline. A firm of analysts comes up with an idea if something that could possible happen, publishes it along with a bunch of public policy data on taxation driving consumer spending habits (which is known behaviour, and has been for 30+ years), and suddenly that transforms into "Governments are considering". Fucking free advertising for Fitch is pretty much all this is.