It's estimated that around 9% of voters who supported Barack Obama in 2012 crossed party lines to endorse Donald Trump in 2016 — but why?
They also evaluated whether concerns related to race and immigration or economic anxiety were more likely to be associated with vote switching in 2016.
Moreover, among both classes of white voters, switching was more likely to be associated with attitudes toward race and immigration than economic factors.
“This paper is the first to thoroughly examine the correlates of vote switching in the 2016 election,” Collingwood’s team wrote.
Likewise, as the Republican Party became known as the party of wealthy elites, the Democratic Party grew increasingly reliant on minority voters.
First, they observed that pronounced attitudes toward race and immigration were defining attributes of voters who switched in either direction.
White voters, including vote switchers, may be sorting into new parties primarily based on their stances toward issues of race and immigration. »
