The percentage of Democrats who say they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden Joe BidenAtlanta mayor endorses Biden for president Harris claims Iowa momentum after first Democratic debates Sanders: My views on working with GOP 'a little bit different' from Biden's MORE if the presidential race were held tomorrow slipped by 10 points after the first primary debate.
According to a Morning Consult/FiveThirtyEight poll of likely Democratic voters released on Friday, 41.5 percent said before the debates they would vote for Biden tomorrow, but 31.5 percent said the same thing after Thursday night’s debate.
The apparent decline in support comes after Biden was widely seen as having faltered, including engaging in a stark exchange with Sen. Kamala Harris Kamala Devi HarrisAtlanta mayor endorses Biden for president Harris claims Iowa momentum after first Democratic debates Booker: Biden can't 'fall into a defensive crouch and shift blame' MORE (D-Calif.) over school busing.
Harris herself got a nearly 9 point bump, with 16.6 percent of Democrats saying they would support her after the debate, up from 7.9 percent before the events.
Other 2020 candidates had marginal increases or decreases.
Biden defended himself Friday during a speech in Chicago, saying that “I fought my heart out to ensure that civil rights and voting rights, equal rights are enforced everywhere” and that he “never, ever opposed voluntary busing.”
Morning Consult and FiveThirtyEight surveyed, from June 19-26, 7,150 registered voters who say they are likely to vote in their state’s Democratic primary or caucus. That result has a margin of error of 1 percentage point. Then, June 27-28, 1,399 respondents who answered the first round of questioning were surveyed. That result has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
ALessDishonestMe on June 28th, 2019 at 23:11 UTC »
Interesting notes from looking at the full fivethirtyeight data visualization:
Only two candidates saw their unfavorables go down after the debates. Elizabeth Warren took 1% off of her unfavorables. Bernie Sanders took .1% off of his. (Note, this is just the number of people holding an unfavorable view, not the net favorability) Biden lost a lot of support before he'd even taken the stage. He lost almost as much to the first debate as he did to the second, in terms of support. Before the debates, the Democrat with the highest unfavorables was Bill de Blasio (21.2% before to 25.4% after). After the debates, the Democrat with the highest unfavorables was Marianne Williamson (9.2% before to 25.8% after). A lot of people moved to Warren after the first debate, only to move to Harris after the second debate. This might suggest that people were looking to an alternative to Biden going into the debate, saw Warren as that alternative before the second night, but were impressed enough by Harris' performance that they swapped to her. Biden lost a lot of voters, but almost none of them went to Sanders, despite Sanders pulling support off of the other candidates. That's particularly strange, because Biden was leading the field in favorability before the debate (76.5% to 75.6%), but Sanders was after the debate (74.4% to 76.3%)The overall indicators seem to be that if anyone won, it was Harris, but Bernie and Warren seem to have benefited a little bit. Buttigieg, Biden, and O'Rourke seem to have taken the worst knocks from the debates (although Buttigieg's loss of support may be directly tied to news spreading about the police shooting, since he lost most of the support he lost after the first debate, mostly to Biden and Warren). Warren seems to have gotten a bit screwed over by going on the first night, particularly as the only really big name at her debate. On the other hand, outside of Marianne Williamson's clumsy attempt at denigrating plans, no one really took a swing at Warren during the second night, so she also could have done far worse if she'd gone the second night and someone had gotten an elbow in.
OppositeDifference on June 28th, 2019 at 21:49 UTC »
This is dangerous for him. The only thing keeping him as a frontrunner currently is his frontrunner status. If he falters, he isn't likely to recover.
d-bake on June 28th, 2019 at 21:48 UTC »
If this poll is accurate then that means Harris destroyed this debate.
For those who didn’t read the article it says Harris jumped 9 points.