More than 50 percent of respondents in a new survey say they will not vote for President Trump Donald John TrumpTrump hits Biden as he hits 2020 trail Trump blasts union chiefs after Biden gets key endorsement Grassley to Trump: Lift tariffs or new NAFTA deal is 'dead' MORE when he seeks reelection in 2020.
The ABC News–Washington Post poll released Monday found that 55 percent of respondents said they will not vote for Trump next year, with only 39 percent approving of his work since taking office.
Of respondents who were asked if they would vote from Trump in 2020, 14 percent said they would consider it and 28 percent said they definitely would vote for him to have a second term in the White House.
Of those respondents who said they wouldn’t vote for Trump, only 29 percent said they would for sure vote for his eventual Democratic counterpart.
Nearly two-thirds instead said they would wait to see who emerges from the crowded Democratic field, which is currently made up of 21 candidates vying for the nomination.
On par with other recent polls and a surge in voter participation in last year’s midterm elections, 85 percent of registered voters said they plan to vote in 2020, a high mark this far out from the presidential election.
The survey was conducted via phone from April 22 to 25 in both English and Spanish and asked a random national survey of 1,001 adults. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
neuronexmachina on April 29th, 2019 at 13:45 UTC »
In 2016 Trump still won the electoral college with only 46% of the popular vote: https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2016
Heck, if you consider that turnout was only 60% in 2016, that means 72% of eligible voters didn't vote for Trump. Turnout in 2020 will be key.
recycleaccount38 on April 29th, 2019 at 13:13 UTC »
Will they vote at all is the question. And will the right people vote in swing states. Let's not forget that Trump only won because about 70,000 votes in PA, WI, and MI won him the electoral college while he lost the popular vote by 3,000,000~ votes.
EDIT: Because apparently it's gone over people's heads, by "right people vote in swing states" I mean that swing state voters' votes are more important than other voters' votes. Having a surplus of 3M votes between NY and CA didn't make a difference for Hilary in 2016. Similarly, having a strong margin in TX didn't make a difference for Trump. What matters is those small number of votes (70K) between the swing states that determine who wins the EC. Getting votes and voters in the "correct" swing states means more than getting a blowout in the areas that are already baked in to EC vote calculations; CA goes blue, TX goes red, etc.
NerdAtSea on April 29th, 2019 at 13:11 UTC »
But do they all live in the right places for that to matter?