FRIDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: At this point in time Captain Marvel is eyeing a $63.5M Friday, including her $20.7M Thursday night haul. That figure is just under Beauty and the Beast‘s first day of $63.77M (which turned around a $174.7M opening, the best ever in March), and under Batman v. Superman‘s Good Friday haul of $81.55M on March 25, 2016 which grossed a 3-day of $166M. Beauty and the Beast reps the top opening for March, followed by BvS, and then The Hunger Games with $152.5M, which it looks like Captain Marvel is beating.
Where does this put Captain Marvel stateside? Industry estimates predict between $156M and $160M, and possibly more at 4,310 locations. Again, it’s early, these numbers can fluctuate, etc., but it’s quite clear: There’s a lot of business going on this weekend in multiplexes around the world. With guys being the dominant moviegoer last night, the question is whether more women will make a date today to watch Carol Danvers on International Women’s Day.
Last night, 411 Imax screens repped 12% of Captain Marvel’s previews, repping the second biggest March preview for the large format exhibitor behind BvS. Captain Marvel is the biggest Imax day-and-date release worldwide of all-time at 1,360 hubs.
In second, DreamWorks Animation/Universal’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is project to make between $14M-$16M in weekend 3, -53% for a running total on the high-end by Sunday of $120.9M.
Lionsgate’s A Madea Family Funeral is poised to a second weekend of $8.2M, -70% for a 10-day take of $42M.
Warner Bros.’ The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part in weekend 5 is eyeing $4M, -40% for a running total of $97.2M.
Fox’s Alita: Battle Angel is seeing $2.6M, -64%, in weekend 4 for a running total of $77.7M.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Disney is reporting that Captain Marvel flew to $20.7M last night from shows that started at 6PM. Among Thursday Marvel previews that’s the fifth best after Avengers: Infinity War ($39M), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($27.6M), Black Panther ($25.2M), and Captain America: Civil War ($25M).
ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrak scores out of the gate for the 21st Marvel title in the MCU are off to a great start with 4 1/2 stars and a 73% definite recommend. Men overall led over females last night 60% to 40%. It will be interesting to see if that changes over the weekend. Captain Marvel pulled in a 77% general audience, 9% parents and 4% kids. Kids under 12 gave the female superhero five stars with girls giving the pic 100% and boys 91%. In order of demo draw last night men 25+ led at 37% followed by men under 25 (23%), women over 25 (21%) and women under 25 (18%). Women love the pic better than guys, 91% to 82% with females over 25 bestowing the best grades from adults on Carol Danvers at 96% positive.
Disney has appropriately timed Marvel’s first female superhero movie to open on Women’s Day today in 4,310 theaters, and what a wonderful weekend this will be with Captain Marvel set to earn north of $130M should it follow a similar trajectory to that of Suicide Squad which made $20.5M in previews, a $64.8M first day and $133.6M weekend. Spring breaks are starting up: ComScore shows 6% K-12 and 13% colleges off today, numbers which will grow to respectively 18% and 33% by Monday.
Among regular movies in release, DreamWorks Animation/Universal’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World led all pics with $1.35M yesterday, -9% from Wednesday for a two week haul of $104.9M including previews. The threequel is just $3.8M behind in its running domestic total when compared to its previous chapter; again that movie played in July when kids were off from school. Pic’s second week total was $37.2M.
Second yesterday was Lionsgate’s Tyler Perry movie Madea Family Funeral which made $1.2M, -6% for a first week of $33.8M.
Fox/Lightstorm’s Alita: Battle Angel made $445K yesterday, -28% from Wednesday, for an estimated third week of $9.9M and running total of $75.1M.
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: Proof that moviegoing isn’t dead this year, and that it just boils down to the product on the marquee, can be vividly seen tonight: Disney’s Captain Marvel starring Oscar winner Brie Larson is on her way to an estimated $20 million-$24 million Thursday night per Deadline industry sources. It is one of the best box office-grossing days that 2019 has seen to date after How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World‘s first Saturday of $22.2M. Since these are rough box office estimates, not from Disney, we always have to footnote that they can increase or decrease by Friday AM.
Should Captain Marvel continue on the pace with what we’re seeing tonight, she’ll rank as the second best preview night for March behind Warner Bros’ Batman v. Superman‘s Holy Thursday 2016 take of $27.7M.
Previews began at 6 PM Thursday for Captain Marvel, the same time that Thursday previews started for Ant-Man and the Wasp, instead of the usual 7 PM which was when Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War fired up.
The range for Captain Marvel is higher than another female-led vehicle, Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games, which made $19.7M on its first Thursday back on March 22, 2012. It’s also higher than the first night of Marvel’s Avengers ($18.7M), could beat the preview night of Warner Bros’ Suicide Squad ($20.5M), and comes just under the first Thursdays of last year’s Black Panther ($25.2M) and May 2016’s Captain America: Civil War ($25M). Next to the first night of Warner Bros’ Wonder Woman in June 2017, Captain Marvel is besting her $11M preview by 118%. Fantastic.
Suicide Squad‘s Thursday night repped 32% of its $64.8M opening Friday, turning into a $133.6M opening, the best August has ever seen. Captain America saw around the same share, with Thursday repping 33% of its $75.5M Friday for a $179.1M opening weekend. This gives you an idea of Captain Marvel‘s potential for the weekend.
Tracking was between $120M-$140M and recently rose at the top end to $155M today for the superhero movie directed by Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck.
In Fandango pre-sales, Captain Marvel is its top advance ticket seller since Avengers: Infinity War last year. In the digital ticket-seller’s survey, 98% of those polled are looking forward to seeing how Captain Marvel connects with the ongoing Avengers storyline. In seven weeks, Disney will open Avengers: Endgame on April 26, jumpstarting the summer early just like it did last year with Infinity War.
Captain Marvel has all the premium super-powers at her command, i.e. 3,000 of her 4,200 theaters are 3D-equipped, all 400-plus Imax hubs, 750 premium large-format screens and 250 D-box locations. The film carries a production budget around $152M (Black Panther cost an estimated $200M before P&A).
Rotten Tomatoes for Captain Marvel stands at 82% certified fresh from 248 reviews, which is healthy enough for a four-quad picture to start a fire over the weekend. Splicing hairs: critics were more marveled by Warner Bros/DC’s Wonder Woman, which earned a 93% RT off 417 reviews.
dawn_jelly on March 8th, 2019 at 19:54 UTC »
Here’s my take:
Really liked it! Solid film, and it felt like a unique take on the superhero origin story. Not at all a generic Marvel film.
I actually loved Brie Larson in her role. I think a lot of people who didn’t are mistaking subtlety in her acting for lack of emotion and being boring. She was a very confused and troubled character for much of the runtime, but to me she felt totally genuine and well-realized. There’s lots of room to develop her flaws and character traits more but it was a good foundation.
Sam Jackson and Ben Mendelsohn were awesome. Talos was a fantastic character and Fury’s de-aging was unreal. Goose the cat also stole the entire show!
Another small thing I loved was the practical makeup for the Skrulls. Looked like fantastic Star Trek TV villains, and that’s a compliment. There was so much detail and texture.
Negatives? Visually it was very bland at times. Some of the action was choppy and unfocused. A few iffy editing spots too. Ronan and Korath felt like they appeared purely for fan service.
But overall I really enjoyed it a lot. It was a great intro to Carol Danvers and I’m excited to see her again in Endgame. 7.5/10!
(On a side note, it’s infuriating to see people bombarding the movie with bad reviews and smugly patting each other on the back about how terrible it was. This is absolutely not Marvel’s worst, and even if you didn’t enjoy it, there’s still no reason to hope it fails.)
HowardBunnyColvin on March 8th, 2019 at 14:22 UTC »
Hell yeah
I love watching these movies on Thursday night. They used to be midnight showings too, but some of us have to work on Friday too. 7 PM Thursday for these movies is fine with me.
Theater didn't seem really packed though. The first 3 or 4 rows were all empty. Everyone wanted to sit back with their food (Alamo Drafthouse)
RuruTutu on March 8th, 2019 at 14:05 UTC »
It was pretty good. Nothing crazy, but a good feel, I'd say one of the better solo/intro films (IM1, Ant-Man, GOTG1 and Ragnarok beat it for sure). Feels like it should have been made and watched with the phase 1/2 films, somewhere between first avenger and winter soldier, as its callbacks go a certain way.
EDIT: I forgot Homecoming from the list of solos, and Winter Soldier is arguably top 1 or 2 to most people, so didn't think it needed mentioning.