If people cannot adapt to future climate temperatures, deaths caused by severe heatwaves will increase dramatically in tropical and subtropical regions, followed closely by Australia, Europe and the United States, a global new Monash-led study shows.
Published today in PLOS Medicine, it is the first global study to predict future heatwave-related deaths and aims to help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
Researchers developed a model to estimate the number of deaths related to heatwaves in 412 communities across 20 countries for the period of 2031 to 2080.
The study projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under different scenarios characterised by levels of greenhouse gas emissions, preparedness and adaption strategies and population density across these regions.
Study lead and Monash Associate Professor Yuming Guo said the recent media reports detailing deadly heatwaves around the world highlight the importance of the heatwave study.
"Future heatwaves in particular will be more frequent, more intense and will last much longer," Associate Professor Guo said.
"If we cannot find a way to mitigate the climate change (reduce the heatwave days) and help people adapt to heatwaves, there will be a big increase of heatwave-related deaths in the future, particularly in the poor countries located around the equator."
A key finding of the study shows that under the extreme scenario, there will be a 471 per cent increase in deaths caused by heatwaves in three Australian cities (Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne) in comparison with the period 1971-2010.
"If the Australia government cannot put effort into reducing the impacts of heatwaves, more people will die because of heatwaves in the future," Associate Professor Guo said.
The study comes as many countries around the world have been affected by severe heatwaves, leaving thousands dead and tens of thousands more suffering from heatstroke-related illnesses. The collective death toll across India, Greece, Japan and Canada continues to rise as the regions swelter through record temperatures, humidity, and wildfires. Associate Professor Antonio Gasparrini, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and study co-author, said since the turn of the century, it's thought heatwaves have been responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, including regions of Europe and Russia.
"Worryingly, research shows that is it highly likely that there will be an increase in their frequency and severity under a changing climate, however, evidence about the impacts on mortality at a global scale is limited," Associate Professor Gasparrini said.
"This research, the largest epidemiological study on the projected impacts of heatwaves under global warming, suggests it could dramatically increase heatwave-related mortality, especially in highly-populated tropical and sub-tropical countries. The good news is that if we mitigate greenhouse gas emissions under scenarios that comply with the Paris Agreement, then the projected impact will be much reduced."
Associate Professor Gasparrini said he hoped the study's projections would support decision makes in planning crucial adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
In order to prevent mass population death due to increasingly severe heatwaves, the study recommends the following six adaption interventions, particularly significant for developing countries and tropical and subtropical regions:
Interpersonal: Information sharing; communication; persuasive arguments; counselling; peer education
Community: Strengthening community infrastructure; encouraging community engagement; developing vulnerable people group; livelihoods; neighbourhood watch
Institutional: Institutional policies; quality standards; formal procedures and regulations; partnership working
Environmental: Urban planning and management; built environment; planting trees; public available drink water; house quality
Public policy: Improvement of health services; poverty reduction; redistribution of resources; education; heatwave-warning system.
bazzimodo on August 1st, 2018 at 14:21 UTC »
All these fires, heatwaves and other extreme weather events happening around the world right now and there is hardly any mention of climate change in the media. At what point will all this start to sink in with the general public that these aren't isolated events and it will be getting a whole lot worse and more frequent year on year? It almost feels like the beginning of one of those disaster movies where things are just starting to go wrong and nobody is paying attention.
noelcowardspeaksout on August 1st, 2018 at 13:46 UTC »
'More than 500 million people live in the Middle East and North Africa ... The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970....Even if Earth’s temperature were to increase on average only by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold. By mid-century, during the warmest periods, temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees at night, and during daytime they could rise to 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit). By the end of the century, midday temperatures on hot days could even climb to 50 degrees Celsius (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit). Another finding: Heat waves could occur ten times more often than they do now.' Source
So the choices are air con or massive migration or mass death.
geek66 on August 1st, 2018 at 11:57 UTC »
Part of the problem with the deniers is this is all they see as the risk, "so it gets warmer",
IMO... global agricultural collapse and ocean death will starve the planet. Leading to true class warfare between people that can afford the meager food resources and those that can not